Bitcoin may face renewed downside pressure ahead of the upcoming US inflation report, with analysts warning that the cryptocurrency could retreat toward the $70,000 level if inflation remains elevated.

According to estimates from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, April headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected to rise to 3.56% year-over-year compared to 3.3% in March. The official inflation report is scheduled for release on May 12.

Analysts say a stronger inflation reading could reduce expectations of early US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which typically puts pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Market observers noted that Bitcoin had previously remained resilient despite higher inflation data due to strong institutional buying activity. However, that support may now be weakening after major corporate buyer Strategy paused additional Bitcoin purchases.

Technical analysts also pointed to a bearish “rising wedge” pattern forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart, which could signal a deeper correction if support levels fail to hold.

According to market projections:

• Immediate support remains around $78,600
• A breakdown could push Bitcoin toward $74,000–$75,000
• The broader downside target from the wedge pattern sits near $70,000

At the same time, analysts noted that a breakout above the key resistance zone near $84,000 and the 200-day exponential moving average could invalidate the bearish outlook and potentially push Bitcoin toward the $90,000–$95,000 range.

Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs have remained relatively strong in recent weeks, but traders are increasingly cautious ahead of the inflation release and future Federal Reserve policy signals.