Bitcoin (Bitcoin) has entered the early stages of a fresh rally after surging toward the $78,000 mark, but analysts caution that the upside may be capped near $84,000 due to strong resistance levels.

Rally Signals Strength

Market analysts point to key on-chain indicators suggesting that Bitcoin’s recovery is more than just a short-term bounce. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has surged to an eight-month high of 2.87, indicating that investors are increasingly selling at a profit a typical sign of a strengthening market.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has turned positive for the first time since January. This shift suggests that the broader market sentiment has transitioned from bearish to bullish, marking what analysts describe as the beginning of a “real rally.”

Key Resistance at $84,000

Despite the bullish momentum, data shows a potential hurdle ahead. Approximately 1.1 million BTC is held at an average cost basis of around $84,000. This concentration could trigger selling pressure as investors look to exit positions at breakeven.

Additionally, the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs sits near $83,100, reinforcing the $84,000 level as a critical resistance zone.

What Comes Next?

Analysts say a confirmed breakout above the $76,000–$78,000 range would solidify buyer control and open the door for a move toward $84,000. However, failure to sustain momentum could result in a short-term pullback before any further upside.

For now, market conditions resemble the early phases of previous bull cycles, but whether Bitcoin can break through the $84,000 barrier remains the key question for traders.