WASHINGTON  –  Ahead of a proposed rule change that would require social media account information from some foreign travelers to the United States, international travel experts are saying the policy could further deter visitors from coming to the US — a decline that could translate into billions of dollars in lost revenue for the travel sector. The warning, from the World Travel & Tourism Council — comes after the global industry group surveyed nearly 5,000 international residents who regularly travel abroad and found one-third of respondents would be somewhat or much less likely to visit the US if applicants to the Visa Waiver Program are required to submit information about their social media accounts. The potential decline in travelers could cost the US an estimated $15.7 billion in lost visitor spending, according to WTTC. Under one scenario, the US could miss out on as many as 4.7 million international arrivals, which would represent a 23% drop in visitors from ESTA countries in 2026. Gloria Guevara, president of WTTC, told CNN the proposed change could cost the US more than 150,000 jobs and “put the US at a competitive disadvantage.” The travelers affected have other destination options, she said in an interview on CNN International’s “Quest Means Business,” and they consider the request for social media account information “intrusive.”  “There are so many places to travel, and the ESTA travelers will choose another destination,” she said. “We will see a decline and the decline is translated into jobs.” Last year was a banner year in travel globally, she noted; countries all around the world saw increases in the number of visitors.  “That was not the case for the US,” she said. Two-thirds of the 4,563 travelers surveyed – who hail from Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, among other countries – said they were aware of the proposed policy already. And a large share of them said it would make the US feel less welcoming and less attractive for both leisure and business travel, according to the WTTC survey results.  ESTA is an online application that grants visitors from the 42 eligible countries the right to visit the US for under 90 days without a visa. 

Currently visitors who use ESTA are asked to supply information such as passport numbers, birth dates and prior criminal activity. In a statement Thursday, a CBP spokesperson noted that the proposed changes are not final. “Most are designed to support Executive Order 14161, aimed at protecting the U.S. from foreign terrorist and other national security and public safety threats,” the spokesperson said, but did not address how social media information would be used in evaluating applicants.  It remains unclear exactly what social media information would be collected. The Federal Register posting says ESTA applicants would need to provide “social media from the last 5 years.”  A question requesting social media information was initially added to the application in 2016, with the section marked as “optional.” The information would be mandatory under the new proposal. But according to the Greater Miami and the Beaches Hotel Association, government officials have told them privately visitors would need to provide account names or handles but would not be required to provide access to accounts or specific posts and the CBP would not review every applicant’s social media activity.  “CBP has been explicit that social media accounts would not be reviewed for comments, posts or activity critical of President Trump or other political leaders. Under the proposal, CBP would collect usernames solely to check them against classified information the government already has,” the association said in a post on its blog this month. The policy, however, remains of great concern for the association, which noted Miami will be one of the hosts of the FIFA World Cup.

“Our success depends on the ease, and perception of ease, of international travel,” said the hotel association. In a separate move, the State Department has already instructed embassies and consulates that they may scrutinize student visa applicants for “hostile attitudes towards our citizens, culture, government, institutions, or founding principles.”