When Issa Baig, a resident of Gujar Bandi, bought a small piece of land near his home fourteen years ago to plant olive trees following his father’s advice, he dreamed that within a few years, the orchard would not only support his livelihood but also set a new example for the region.

His father had spent most of his life working in Gulf countries, first in Kuwait and later in Sudan under a United Nations project. It was there that he first encountered olive trees and olive oil. The idea took root in his mind: If olives could thrive under the scorching heat of Arab lands, why not in the fertile soil of Azad Kashmir?

In 2011, Issa’s father brought a hundred saplings from Balochistan and planted them at the foothills of Gujar Bandi. Initially, they neither used fertilizer nor irrigation, relying solely on natural rainfall. Within five years, the trees reached a height of four to five feet and produced their first modest crop.

“We were told that olives start bearing fruit in the fifth year,” Issa recalls with a smile. “And that’s exactly what happened. But we had no idea that even slight changes in weather could impact the trees so drastically.”

Until a few years ago, Issa’s orchard produced nearly one ton of olives annually, yielding around 85 liters of oil. But this year, the outcome was disappointing.

“From the entire orchard, we got only 52 kilograms of olives and barely five and a half liters of oil,” he says. “We couldn’t understand why it happened. We had watered the trees and applied fertilizer, yet the production dropped.”

According to him, olive trees require cold nights during the fruiting stage, conditions that were absent this year.

Issa also observed a new issue in his orchard. “We started seeing spider webs on the fruit, and many olives had marks that looked like bird bites. We still don’t know whether it’s a disease or something else.”Issa’s experience reflects a broader trend across the region.

Climate Stress Felt Across Azad Kashmir

Muhammad Aamir, Deputy Director at the Agriculture Department of Azad Kashmir, says that around 1 to 1.5 million wild olive trees currently exist in the region. These can be converted into productive varieties through grafting.

“We have two ongoing projects: the federal government’s ‘Pak Olive Project’ and a local initiative under the ADP,” he explains. “But due to funding delays, many activities remain incomplete.”

According to Aamir, the Turkish development agency TİKA provided a small oil extraction machine, which is installed in Muzaffarabad.“Last year, our oil extraction rate ranged between 20 to 23 percent—higher than the national average. But this year, due to extreme heat and a lack of cooler nights, the oil percentage dropped to just 7 to 9 percent. Aamir notes that another challenge arose because many farmers brought dried olives to the machine. “When we asked why they had dried the fruit, they said they followed YouTube tutorials. This shows how a lack of proper knowledge and online misinformation is causing losses.”

In previous years, farmers brought fresh olives after receiving training from the department. “Now people follow whatever they see online, and the result is poor oil extraction or no oil at all.”This year, the number of fruits per tree also declined. “It’s not just Azad Kashmir; this pattern was observed across Pakistan. The Centre of Excellence in Shinkiari even stopped processing because the oil percentage had fallen to five or six percent.”

After a slight drop in temperature, extraction improved to 13–15 percent, still lower than previous years. Over the past three years, the department has carried out grafting on about 500,000 wild olive trees and distributed more than 200,000 high-quality saplings to farmers. Some of these new plantations have begun producing fruit.

A Changing Climate Behind the Decline

Experts link this year’s poor olive yield to climate change. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Muzaffarabad has been experiencing an average annual temperature rise of 1 to 1.5°C. If the trend continues, temperatures are expected to rise another 1.4°C by 2060 and up to 3.0°C by 2100.

Shafique Abbasi, Director of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Azad Kashmir, says: “Rapid population growth, unplanned construction, and expanding road networks have created a heat island effect in Muzaffarabad. As a result, temperatures are consistently rising.”He adds that mountain cutting and deforestation have also contributed significantly to climate change. Environmental activists further argue that the Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project has altered the river’s natural flow, reducing moisture levels and disrupting local weather patterns. The decline in river water and the increase in dry winds have affected humidity, impacting not only olives but other fruit-bearing trees as well.

A Future That Still Holds Hope

Farmers like Issa are now struggling to protect their orchards. They also point out that oil extraction machines used in Chakwal are larger and more advanced, capable of processing large quantities at a time. In contrast, the single machine provided in Azad Kashmir through TİKA has limited capacity. Farmers believe that with better government support, efficient machinery, timely funding, and more stable weather, olives could become a major source of livelihood in Azad Kashmir.

At the foot of the mountains, Issa’s small olive orchard is no longer just a field; it is a symbol of hope. A hope that, despite changing weather patterns, farmers in Azad Kashmir will continue their bond with the land. And that olive trees, seen as symbols of peace and resilience, may once again flourish in this region.

It is important to note that olive cultivation is not practiced on a large scale in Muzaffarabad, nor is there dedicated land allocated for it. Farmers grow olives on a small scale in home gardens or privately owned plots, while the Agriculture Department continues its efforts to promote cultivation. However, rising temperatures and climate variability are significantly affecting this slow-growing sector, and the impacts are now clearly visible.